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How We Estimate Early Role Signals (And Why We Use a 1-3 Week Window)

A transparent look at our methodology: how we define event dates, posting dates, lag windows, and the primary sources we use to estimate early executive-role timing signals.

Richard Rothschild··6 min read

Every product decision at Starting Monday is grounded in one question: what is the earliest reliable signal that a C-suite search is forming? This post explains the evidence basis for that claim - without exposing the exact detection methods we use.

What the claim means

The claim does not mean every company publishes a role 1–3 weeks after an internal decision. Executive hiring does not work that consistently. It means we frequently detect meaningful context before broad-market posting channels catch up.

In practice, “broad-market posting” means LinkedIn and major job boards. Observable company-level changes often surface earlier context for executives paying attention.

The timing model

We separate timing into three measurable intervals so we do not overstate precision: internal trigger to first public signal, first signal to company career page posting, and career page to broad-market distribution. The 1–3 week figure applies primarily to the third interval.

Evidence basis

Our claims are grounded in regulatory disclosure timelines, HR process documentation, and industry benchmarks used directionally, not as precise predictions. We separate high-confidence sources from contextual support. Primary sources are cited in the references page.

Current limitations

  • Private companies disclose less, so event dates are harder to validate.
  • Some executive searches never become public postings.
  • Role confidentiality, geography, and industry materially change lag timing.

How to use this as a candidate

Treat timing as probability, not certainty. The practical advantage is knowing where to focus outreach while most candidates are still waiting for the listing.

See the full signal model inside the platform

The detailed detection methodology, evidence tiers, and timing calibration data are available to Starting Monday members.

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For the execution side, read how to build a target-company list and our market scan write-up.

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